ENBIS-11 in Coimbra

4 – 8 September 2011 Abstract submission: 1 January – 25 June 2011

Random Events in Safety Critical Maintenance: A Myth?

7 September 2011, 12:40 – 13:00


Submitted by
Chris McCollin
Chris McCollin Tony Sackfield
Nottingham Trent University
We initially consider an extension to the mean value function of the Duane Model or more commonly called the Non-homogeneous Poisson Process with Weibull intensity. The intractability of this model leads us to consider a simpler version which provides some insight into the use of the exponential distribution in maintenance modelling. We transform the model to provide graphical estimates of parameters from data and provide analysis and interpretation for a well-known reliability data set. We then consider the time to first event of this process and determine the mean and variance of special cases of the associated probability density function. Finally we show a graphical method to determine the parameters of a special case with an application to a reliability data set and provide a possible physical interpretation.
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