ENBIS COVID-19 Webinar Series 3

29 April 2020; 12:00 – 12:30

CEPS: Monitoring COVID19 Contagion (Paolo Giudici)

CEPS: MONITORING COVID19 CONTAGION

Date and Time: 29 April 2020, Wednesday at 12:00 CEST

Speaker: Dr. Paolo Giudici, Professor, University of Pavia, Italy

Moderator: Murat Caner Testik

Link to Talk: https://youtu.be/RMcepaH4m_k

Abstract: We propose a Poisson autoregressive model to monitor the contagion curve. When compared to standard SIR models, the proposal has the advantage to adapt to time changes and to include daily variations due, for example, to changes in testing procedures or quarantine policies. We apply the model to WHO data for the most impacted world countries.