ENBIS COVID-19 Webinar Series 224 April 2020; 12:00 – 12:30
Modelling some COVID-19 Data (Marc Lavielle)
MODELLING SOME COVID-19 DATA
Date and Time: 24 April 2020, Friday at 12:00 CEST
Speaker: Dr. Marc Lavielle, Research Director, Inria, and Professor, Ecole Polytechnique, France
Moderator: Murat Caner Testik
Link to Talk: https://youtu.be/ZkaR_sYS-ys
Abstract: We propose to build a SIR-type model for the Covid-19 data provided by the Johns-Hopkins University. The model is adapted in order to fit the data for a given country. In particular, the model integrates a time-dependent transmission rate, whose variations can be thought to be related to the health measures taken by the country in question. The proposed model adjusts the data for several countries very well. In particular, it seems to confirm that several countries have already reached the peak of the pandemic and are seeing their numbers of infected people and deaths decline. It is important to stress that such a model does not claim to be able to predict the evolution of the epidemic in each country. It merely proposes a possible scenario in the relatively short term, assuming a certain stability of conditions.