ENBIS-18 in Nancy

2 – 25 September 2018; Ecoles des Mines, Nancy (France) Abstract submission: 20 December 2017 – 4 June 2018

Hierarchical Models for Reliability Verification

4 September 2018, 09:00 – 09:20

Abstract

Submitted by
Nikolaus Haselgruber
Authors
Nikolaus Haselgruber (CIS Consulting in Industrial Statistics GmbH)
Abstract
In a development process of a complex technical product, such as a vehicle or a wind turbine, the verification of reliability targets is an important mission. It decides about release of systems and components. If the product can be considered as a repairable system composed of (subsystems built up from) non-repairable components, the verification process starts on component level and ends up with the release of the final product based on system testing. Depending on reliability and lifetime requirements, the verification process may be expensive in terms of resources and time. Thus, effective sampling plans can help to minimize the sample size and simultaneously control the risk of releasing unreliable products. This talk discusses several ways to design reliability verification plans. Starting from the classical binomial approach which is well-known from quality engineering, several alternatives are introduced, such as a Bayesian variant with Beta prior on the failure probability or an a priori known shape parameter for Weibull distributed lifetime. Applications of hierarchical Bayesian models to derive sampling plans for reliability verification for non-repairable as well as repairable objects are presented in addition. Advantages and potential problems of the different alternatives are discussed by looking real-world examples from the automotive industry, e.g. head lamps of passenger cars.
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