ENBIS: European Network for Business and Industrial Statistics
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ENBIS18 in Nancy
2 – 25 September 2018; Ecoles des Mines, Nancy (France) Abstract submission: 20 December 2017 – 4 June 2018The following abstracts have been accepted for this event:

Uncertainty Calculations in a System Reliabilty Tool
Authors: JanWillem Bikker (CQM BV)
Primary area of focus / application: Reliability
Keywords: Reliability, Monte Carlo, Uncertainty modelling, Bayesian, Design of Experiments
Submitted at 4Apr2018 08:45 by JanWillem Bikker
Accepted
The system’s buildup is much more complex than just serial or parallel, and uses Monte Carlo simulation for the calculations. For instance, a system is considered still functional if only a few lightsources are down. A novel feature translates the uncertainty of each subcomponent’s reliability to the output on system level, which helps in the interpretation. The knowledge of a subcomponent’s failure may come from stress tests, leading to a covariance matrix of the model parameters’ estimates, or sometimes from practical educated guesses, in which case the uncertainty takes on the character of a Bayesian prior. As system could have several dozens of different subcomponents, there is a computational challenge to deliver fast systemlevel uncertainty intervals for the various failure curves. The talk explains how DoE schemes with up to hundreds of factors are used, and highlights some of the development aspects where computer science, mathematics, and statistics meet. 
Using SplitPlot Diagnostics to Reveal Hidden Information
Authors: Pat Whitcomb (StatEase, Inc.)
Primary area of focus / application: Other: Software
Secondary area of focus / application: Design and analysis of experiments
Keywords: Design of Experiments, Splitplot RSM design, Random effects, Fixed effects
By way of a case study, this talk features innovative diagnostics for splitplot designs that reveal outliers and other abnormalities. These diagnostics are derived from restricted maximum likelihood (REML) tools that estimate fixed factor effects and random variance components. The presentation begins by laying out the benefits of splitplot designs versus traditional response surface method (RSM). It then demonstrates how diagnostic plots tailored for splitplot designs can reveal surprising wrinkles in experimental data. 
Modelling and Inference of Partially Observed Competing and Propagating Flaw Indications
Authors: Emmanuel Remy (EDF R&D), Sophie Mercier (University of Pau), Laurent Bordes (University of Pau), Emilie Dautreme (EDF R&D)
Primary area of focus / application: Other: Statistical Methods for Degradation Data
Keywords: Degradation process, Residual lifetime, Censored data, Logcompositelikelihood function
Submitted at 5Apr2018 20:31 by Emmanuel REMY
Accepted
Taking into account this partial information coming from the field, a specific stochastic model is developed. We consider that the flaw indications initiate according to a Poisson process and next propagate according to competing independent gamma processes. A parametric estimation procedure is proposed and applied to the real dataset. The fitted model is then used to assess useful indicators for reliability and maintenance engineers, such as the distribution of the residual operating time of the component until its degradation reaches the specified degradation threshold. 
The SteadyState Behavior of Multivariate Exponentially Weighted Moving Average Control Charts
Authors: Sven Knoth (Helmut Schmidt University, University of the Federal Armed Forces Hamburg)
Primary area of focus / application: Process
Secondary area of focus / application: Quality
Keywords: Multivariate Statistical Process Control, Fredholm integral equation of the second kind, Nyström method, Markov Chain approximation, Noncentral Chisquare distribution, Spherical distribution
Submitted at 8Apr2018 18:29 by Sven Knoth
Accepted

An Analysis for Industry 4.0: Change Point Detection of the Effects of Industrial Revolutions on Performance Indicators
Authors: Ozgun Sarikulak (ASELSAN A.Ş.), Murat Caner Testik (Hacettepe University)
Primary area of focus / application: Process
Secondary area of focus / application: Modelling
Keywords: Industrial revolution, Industry 4.0, CUSUM, Change point estimator, Missing point imputation, Control charts
Submitted at 10Apr2018 15:54 by Ozgun Sarikulak
Accepted
In this study, performance indicators of England, France, Netherlands, Germany and USA are studied retrospectively by using cumulative sum (CUSUM) control charts to estimate the change points. Hence, reflections of industrial revolutions on the performance indicators are evaluated. The data used in the analysis include income per capita and energy consumption per capita from the 18th to 21st century. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average models are used to represent autocorrelation structures of the time series of indicators. CUSUM control charts are implemented for the residuals of the models, where nonnormal residuals are transformed to normal distribution. The last reset time corresponding to a CUSUM signal is taken as the estimate of a change in the performance indicator and this is analyzed for the effects of a war or an economic crisis besides an industrial revolution. If an effect of war or a crisis is found, corresponding outofcontrol observations are omitted from the dataset and missing point imputation is performed.
According to the study results, reflections of the industrial revolutions’ effects can be observed from performance indicators. This study is also consistent with the years that are accepted in the literature for industrial revolutions. In addition, this study shows that the era of industrial revolutions also altered the patterns of income per capita and energy consumption per capita. 
EMUE: Towards a Comprehensive Set of Examples of Measurement Uncertainty Evaluation to Support Guides and Standards
Authors: Maurice Cox (NPL)
Primary area of focus / application: Metrology & measurement systems analysis
Secondary area of focus / application: Modelling
Keywords: EMPIR project EMUE, Measurement uncertainty, Joint Committee for Guides in Metrology (JCGM), Guide to the expression of uncertainty in measurement (GUM), Learn by example, Adaptable examples
Reliable statements of uncertainty are needed in diverse areas of measurement such as environment, energy and quality of life. These areas would benefit from carefully elaborated examples that are practical and specific to these domains and as far as possible are in a form that can be adapted to endusers’ data and knowledge. ISO/IEC 17025, General requirements for the competence of testing and calibration laboratories, states that it should be ensured “that the form of reporting of the result does not give a wrong impression of the uncertainty”, with the implication that practitioners should pay an appropriate level of attention to evaluating and reporting uncertainty. Since many endusers “learn by example”, a diverse set of practical examples, ranging in complexity from the simple to the sophisticated, would be highly beneficial and is being provided by EMUE.
Industrial need includes uncertainty evaluation problems that cannot directly be tackled by applying existing guidance given in the Guide to the expression of uncertainty in measurement (GUM), but require to be supported by methods of numerical simulation. Societal need includes ways in which uncertainty statements are made concerning cancer therapy and doping control, for instance. EMUE is addressing such needs.
Some examples being provided by EMUE will concern the traditional metrology areas of calibration, testing, comparison and conformance assessment. Selected examples will relate to the thematic areas of environment, energy, quality of life, and industry and society. The examples will be offered to the Joint Committee for Guides in Metrology (JCGM) and its member organizations (BIPM, IEC, IFCC, ILAC, ISO, IUPAC, IUPAP and OIML) for use in a developing document illustrating the application of the GUM suite of documents, and so support the agreed GUM New Perspective. They will also be provided to standards committees and other bodies and endusers that have expressed a need for them.
The talk will describe some of the planned content of the set of examples and outline the guiding principles by which they are being developed.