ENBIS: European Network for Business and Industrial Statistics

Simulation models in the design of clinical trials: A review

22 September 2009, 16:15 – 16:35

Abstract

Submitted by

Ismail Abbas

Authors

Ismail Abbas

Affiliation

Departament d’Estadística i Investigació Operativa, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain

Abstract

Many members of ENBIS discuss, develop and use simulation models, particularly as aids to design and optimisation of clinical trials. But how well does the pharmaceutical industry apply our work? I tried to find out by reviewing 25 articles that I selected from the Medline/Pubmed database. The articles were published between 1980 and 2005. I reviewed and classified them according to the purpose, the type of model applied (deterministic or stochastic), treatment of uncertainty, and the software used to develop the model and to analyse results. I shall present my findings, which you will agree, are disappointing. I shall argue that we must find ways to promote more and better use of simulation with a view to taking useful treatments to patients more quickly and at a lower cost than at present.

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