ENBIS-13 in Ankara

15 – 19 September 2013 Abstract submission: 5 February – 5 June 2013

Keynote: Probability Management: Unambiguous Uncertainty

18 September 2013, 11:45 – 12:45

Abstract

Submitted by
Sam Savage
Authors
Sam Savage (Stanford University)
Abstract
A new trend in risk modeling involves networking analytical systems together through data bases of simulated scenarios. The SIPmath open standard from the non-profit ProbabilityManagement.org is a cross platform approach to managing such scenarios.
· It is actionable, in that uncertainties may be used in interactive calculations by decision makers themselves, taking the meeting room beyond Power Point.
· It is additive, in that the results of legacy analytical systems may be aggregated across the enterprise to create consolidated risk statements.
· It is auditable, in that uncertainties are represented as unambiguous data including provenance with respect to accuracy and security.

Interactive simulation examples demonstrated in Excel, without macros or add-ins will include portfolios of energy projects, econometric forecasting models, and simple universal calculators for functions of random variables.

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